Between 2006 and 2016 four trends will shape the development and uptake of e-assessment.

• Rapid change in assessment in the lecture hall and the classroom (Assessment for Learning), driven by an increase in the capability of handheld and personal technologies.
• The transformation of (some) examinations and training through the use of technology to create virtual worlds assessing students’ higher order thinking. 
• The migration of traditional paper-based tests to computer-delivered tests.  Initially multiple-choice in format, over the next decade computer-based assessment incrementally will adopt more sophisticated approaches such as coursework requiring extensive use of technology to conduct research, evaluate and present findings.
• Uptake of e-portfolios to accommodate 21st century learning and training patterns, as well as to strengthen university and college transfer.

Already, in the five years from 2001-2006, there have been significant advances in e-assessment.  In England, in 2004 the Qualifications and Curriculum Authority (QCA) published a five-year Vision and Blueprint, calling for on-screen assessment to be ‘increasingly commonplace’ at GCSE and A-level by 2009.  Careers Wales has successfully launched Europe’s first national e-portfolio system, designed for learners of all ages including adults and professionals.  And in Scotland Ministers have backed development of the world’s largest educational intranet, linking all schools in the country.

So, what might assessment look like in 10 years time?  What will remain unchanged and what will have embraced 21st century learning?  This section looks at each of the four trends and speculates about how each might develop over the next ten years.

Trend one:
Personalisation of technology drives assessment for learning

The most radical changes brought by e-assessment will occur in the classroom and the lecture hall.  The primary driver for change will be technology – the availability of personal, handheld devices.  Already in 2006 these there are revealing examples showing how this technology can revolutionise pedagogy. 

• The University of Strathcylde’s Department of Mechanical Engineering has had noteworthy success in introducing electronic voting technology to the lecture hall.  Short bursts of instruction are followed by focused questions designed to assess comprehension and understanding.  All students discuss and respond to all set questions, not just the most vocal.  Lecturers can see immediately where misunderstandings are occurring, and they can pace instruction accordingly.  Not surprisingly, students’ interest and motivation have also been positively influenced by this engaging approach to formative assessment.
  
• The Re-engineering Assessment Practices (REAP) initiative in Scotland is piloting approaches to assessment involving tutors, peers and self-assessment.  This work covers the University of Strathclyde, Glasgow Caledonian University and the University of Glasgow.  It is designed to place the learner at the heart of learning, encouraging self-reflection.  It will develop new models of assessment, linked to a drive to support learning for the 21st century.
  
• In Wolverhampton Local Authority in England, David Whyley’s Learn2Go project has experimented with the use of handheld devices in primary and secondary schools over the past two years.  Already this project has demonstrated significant improvements in children’s self-assessment, motivation and engagement with the curriculum, including in areas such as reading and mathematics.  The work is now also claiming evidence that these broad gains do translate into improvements in children’s scores on more traditional tests.

Personalisation, enabled through the ubiquitous availability of this learning technology, will be the hallmark of a UK education in 2016.  Students in schools will routinely study first year degree courses.  E-portfolios will provide learners with control over their current learning and over future directions.  Handheld technologies will radically change the nature of pedagogy, motivating and re-engaging learners disaffected by more traditional methods of instruction.  These changes will be reflected by industry-wide change in the supply of assessment resources, described under ‘Trend Three’ below.

Trend two:
Transformation of tests and assessment

By 2016 simulators will be widely used in e-assessment and in professional training.  These will mimic real-life circumstances, requiring learners of all ages to apply knowledge and skills to solve problems and resolve issues.

Work on the first major application of this technology began in 2001.  The Qualifications and Curriculum Authority (QCA) and Research Machines (RM) plc began building a test of ICT based on an ICT simulator.  The objective of this assessment is to test the student’s ability to use and apply ICT skills in context.  Students are expected to make decisions about which ICT skills to use and when it is appropriate to do so – not just to show evidence of the skills.  The assessment takes place in a virtual desktop environment, in a virtual world called Pepford.  The desktop provides a suite of software tools.  The world of Pepford is a virtual world of websites containing information needed to work on problems set in the tests.  These problems might, for example, be about designing a system for a cinema booking office to use to keep track of ticket sales.  Or students could be asked to research ethnic diversity in the workforces of Pepford, then to write and publish an article in the local virtual newspaper.  From 2008 all 14 year-olds in England will be required to complete this test; and by 2016 the test will be in its eighth year of operation.

In 2016 the key stage 3 ICT test will be seen to have contributed significantly to the transformation of assessment and testing. 

• It will have created advanced technical capability in every secondary school in England to run high stakes tests on screen.  This will encourage other e-assessment providers to develop similar products.  With every secondary school in the country trained, equipped and experienced at delivering high-stakes examinations on-screen, AQA, Edexcel and Cambridge Assessment will spend the next decade using that new capability to deliver more on-screen examinations of their own.   
  
• In Wales traditional tests at key stage 2 (for 11 year-olds) are making way for a national database of assessment activities, some of them computer-enabled.
  
• It is possible that, by 2016, e-assessment will have breathed new life into functional skills assessment, due to be introduced on a pilot basis from 2009.  The key assessment issue for functional skills (previously known as key and basic skills) is the authenticity of the assessment.  Simulations provide an opportunity to develop a form of testing which is widely accepted as providing a valid assessment of learning in functional skills. 
  
• Work-based learning will increasingly adopt e-assessment approaches, if only for the choice and flexibility that these systems provide.  In 2005, EAL, the major awarding body for the engineering, manufacturing and technology sectors in England and Scotland announced its decision to fast-track the adoption of computer-delivered tests to accredited test centres in response to user demand from training providers and users. 
  
• In addition, assessment providers will have taken further the concept of simulations being used for tests.  Core elements of baccalaureate qualifications will introduce sophisticated use of technology to assess students’ skills in communication, finding things out and working collaboratively.  By 2016, all 18 year-olds will have extensive experience of using technology to research, evaluate and present their ideas.  They will have used virtual science laboratories and will make sophisticated use of technology to model ideas and solutions.  The new 18+ extended project will enable students to make extensive use of technology.        

Trend three:
Migration of traditional paper-based tests to computer-delivered test

 
Any change in the content and nature of A-levels will be determined largely by their role at entry to university and college.  UCAS’ dependence on A-levels is likely to be reduced by 2016, in part due to the availability of an increasingly wide range of information about applicants’ interests, achievements and performance.  This trend will be accelerated through the widening usefulness of e-portfolios (see below).

Awarding bodies will not be driven to modernise content.  For a few years following 2006, their primary e-assessment effort will be to scan paper-based scripts.  Only gradually at first, they will begin to migrate examination content from paper to screen, involving minimal change to content.  At its most fundamental, this will involve the creation of closed, multiple-choice forms of assessment delivered on screen.  In autumn 2006, AQA, Edexcel and Cambridge Assessment will begin live use of computer-delivered examinations in one or two GSCE and A level science and modern foreign languages modules.  These will be successful.  Success will lead awarding bodies to compete openly to deliver increasing volumes of examinations on screen.  By 2011, perhaps 20% of all GCSE and A-level examinations will have been migrated to computer-delivery. 

The greatest inhibitor in the use of technology at GCSE and A level will be policy-makers’ concern that change will be seen as dumbing down.  This concern will slow down the move, and the media will continue to associate computer-based tests with multiple-choice question styles, which are seen as educationally weak.

In parallel with this slow increase in the proportion of examinations delivered on screen, other aspects of school-based summative assessment will undergo incremental change. 

• In some subjects, IT will be used to deliver specified components.  Design & Technology (D&T) will make extensive use of multi-media devices for coursework assessment. Already in 2006 Goldsmiths College is working with awarding bodies to introduce the first multi-media e-portfolios.  This is known as project eSACPE, and it will replace the current 40-hour project, assessed via a word report.  By 2011, all D&T GCSEs will include the multi-media portfolio.  By 2016, the same technological approach will be in use in other subjects such as English, communication studies, media studies and modern foreign languages.
  
• In England’s reception classrooms, all 5 year-olds are now assessed by teachers using the Foundation Stage Profile.  This Profile is completed over time and covers all aspects of learning in children’s earliest years in school.  It includes assessment of social skills and personal confidence, fine motor skills and number skills.  The Profile is supported by electronic exemplar and training materials.  Crucially, the Profile also comes in a format ready to discuss with parents.

In 2016, assessment tools will be widely available to learners.  Students will be able to access practice tests on screen; schools will subscribe to assessment services, enabling students to complete psychometric assessment or dial up to auto-text scoring services.  17 year-olds will typically use auto-text scoring services to improve their writing and to review important papers before submitting them to tutors.  Prior to GCSE, students will often access high quality test databases providing diagnostic reports capable to highlighting misunderstandings and areas for revision and review. Schools, colleges and adult training providers will have access to ever larger and more useful databases of assessment items.  Like the theory driving test, other qualifications will come to publish their entire item banks, enabling learners and tutors alike to assemble, on-demand, their own practice and revision tests.   Learners will register for the formal tests when they are ready – ready to pass!

Trend Four:
e-portfolios

In 2016 e-portfolios will be used by most learners.

In Wales e-portfolios are already, in 2006, an important aspect of education and training policy.  In Wales in 2004, the Minister for Education and Lifelong Learning announced a national entitlement for all Welsh citizens to access an e-portfolio.  Winning a BAFTA 2006 Interactive Award, ‘Careers Wales’ provides learners from age 14 to adult and professional learners with an on-line space where they can accumulate evidence of learning and achievements.  They can reflect on progress made and think about next learning steps.  They can reflect in their interests and aspirations.  The software supports learners in produced a cv., preparing for an interview or writing an application letter. 

The Learning and Skills Council has developed an approach known as Recognising and Recording Progress and Achievement in non-accredited learning (RARPA).   The approach is designed to increase the relevance of learning offered by learning providers and trainers.  According to NIACE’s report on RARPA, learners involved in early pilots stated that their self-confidence and attitude to learning were improved as a result.

Looking back from 2016, it will be clear that the design and uptake of e-portfolios was driven by wider developments in learning.

• The next great push for e-portfolios will come from the introduction of Specialised Diplomas.  The new ICT diploma will provide the greatest step forward in the use of technology to support learning and to deliver assessment.  Students working on these new qualifications will find that they need e-portfolios to plan and keep track of their learning.  Awarding bodies offering diplomas will design easy to use e-portfolio products to support this aspect of the diploma.  Students will also find that an increasing amount of the content of diplomas will depend on the use of an e-portfolio to gather and present evidence of learning. 
  
• By 2016, an increasing number of 11-16 year-old students will also be using e-portfolios.  This development will be hastened by two policy developments.  First, Local Authorities, required to provide a ‘local prospectus’ setting out the range of learning opportunities for 14-19 year-olds, will provide e-portfolio systems to support learners.  In Wolverhampton in 2006, learning opportunities have been widened for all learners by designating Wednesdays as the day on which they can attend other schools or colleges. A network of software maps out learning opportunities and timetables.  An e-portfolio product called ‘my i-plan’ helps the learner map progress and keep track of achievements. Second, at some time before 2016, UCAS will move to an e-portfolio basis for university applications.  These UCAS applications will require students to provide a broad view of their learning, interests and achievements.  Applications in 2016 will typically feature not only qualification results.  They will also include evidence of interests pursued out of school and a range of psychometric assessment evidence.  Although limited to the university applications process, these UCAS e-portfolio requirements will have a much wider impact on schooling 16-19.
  
• The third great push on e-portfolios will come from the National Academy for Gifted and Talented Youth (NAGTY).   NAGTY will campaign successfully for schools to enable and recognise learning out of school.  NAGTY’s focus on meeting the needs of the most able will enable drive the use of e-portfolios to support self-reflective learning and to provide guidance on choices, courses and careers. 

Some conclusions

The developments and trends outlined above are both plausible and possible.  The technologies need to deliver these changes already, in 2006, exist.  What is less certain is whether there is the political will to embrace 21st century learning and technology.  Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland will continue to see technology at the heart of changes in mainstream assessment.  Political concerns about change at GCSE and A-level will mean that the most radical e-assessment advances by 2016 will be in other aspects of England’s assessment regime.  Change in those areas, however, will be profound.  This will most especially be true of the role that technology will play in the classroom to support learning and self-reflection.  And the greater the changes in this regard, the greater the pressure on the guardians of A-level to maintain its relevance. 

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Definition
‘e-assessment’ is used here to refer to the end-to-end assessment processes, covering the perspective of learners, exam centres, examination bodies and regulators

Definition
‘Assessment for learning’ is the processes of using assessment information for use by learners to determine where they are in their learning

Definition
GCSEs and A-levels are school-based examinations completed by students, typically during the ages of 16-19.

Definition
‘Handheld devices’ most often includes the use of PDAs (or business organisers)  and electronic voting pads.  The term is not used here to refer to laptops

Definition
‘Functional Skills’ covers the application of numeracy, communication and ICT skills.  These skills are defined for school students as well as for the adult population.

Definition
‘UCAS’ is the body which administers applications to universities.

Definition
‘Awarding bodies’ refers to organisations licensed to certify, through examinations and other assessments, a learners’ performance in academic subjects, vocational and professional areas.

Definition
The Learning and Skills Council is a body established by the UK government, with responsibility for planning and funding high quality education and training for everyone in England other than those in universities.

Definition
‘Specialised Diplomas’ are new qualifications, to be introduced from 2008, to recognise achievement at ages 14-19.  They will combine practical skill development with theoretical and technical understanding and knowledge.